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Mar 22

Shishmanian says the new ETF offers a secure and efficient way to hold gold.

Nasdaq Dubai and the World Gold Council launched their long-awaited gold exchange (ETF) traded fund this week, which is both Shariah-compliant for Islamic investors and 100 per cent backed by physical gold.

Emirates Business talked to World Gold Council CEO Aram Shishmanian about the new ETF that is aimed squarely at both local investors who want to buy just one-tenth of an ounce of gold as well as regional institutions that want to invest more than $1 billion (Dh3.67bn).

ETFs have often been criticised as derivative products with no complete assurance that they have underlying asset backing. Will the new Nasdaq Dubai gold ETF be backed by allocated or unallocated gold, that is to say will it be fully redeemable against gold held in a bank account?

This is not a derivative product because it is 100 per cent backed by allocated gold held in vaults in London by HSBC, and audited both by traditional and Shariah auditors. It is important to understand the difference between unallocated and allocated gold. The Dubai ETF has allocated gold, so there is no third party acting between the metal and its owner. The ETF certificate is an entitlement to one-tenth of an ounce of gold.

Why would an investor buy the Dubai ETF trading under the ticker symbol GOLD, and not one of the dozen other ETFs trading on global exchanges?

We have launched a series of ETFs around the world over the past eight years and have always found that a regional product stimulates new demand. It is also a Shariah-compliant gold ETF, the first of its kind in the world, and this was not something that was easy for us to achieve. This product is for people looking for a secure and efficient way to hold gold, without necessarily taking delivery. It is a clear response to the need to protect wealth at a time of huge economic uncertainty.

Are you sure this is the right time to launch an ETF in Dubai? Why should people be buying gold now, is the price going up?

I cannot forecast prices in my job. But the WGC has created ETFs on 12 exchanges over eight years. Today $38bn of gold is held in these ETFs, or 1,200 tonnes, more than many national reserves.

Before ETFs, it used to cost investors about five per cent to get in and out of gold, now it is 60 basis points. In the GCC, there has been a 40 per cent increase in demand for gold in the past year, and 114 per cent increase in the past four months. It is an opportune time to launch in Dubai. There is substantial latent demand from investors. Gold is a safe haven, a protection against inflation, a weaker US dollar and third party failures as well as a risk adjustor for investment portfolios.

Gold and bonds are the only asset classes to show a positive performance in the past 12 months. We are seeing a structural shift towards gold as an investment immune from third party failure at a time of systemic risk in the financial sector.

What about price volatility? This has wiped out many smaller investors over the past year, and is proving difficult for the Dubai jewellery sector to manage on a daily basis?

All I can say is that over the past year gold has actually been the least volatile asset against other asset classes, other than US bonds. Gold holders were particularly damaged after the unexpected fall in prices after the failure of Lehman Brothers that caused a domino effect in selling.

But even then gold was acting as it should as an insurer of wealth, and investors were able to liquidate their holdings to pay debts or meet margin calls. It proved its worth as the asset of last resort.

Still room for much higher prices

There is talk in the gold market of a ‘double top’ in prices and evidence of climatic selling by individual investors in India. But to many analysts the gold chart is reminiscent of the 2006 ‘top’ and how investors got jittery at $730.

Since then we have been to $1,000 twice, slipped back and stayed around the $900 mark. The danger is getting short-term selling cycles muddled up with a long-term cyclical bull market that looks as deeply entrenched as ever.

Gold might be the last great bubble of the 2000s, along with bonds, but there is not a climatic price spike on the chart worthy of the name.

Oil last year reminded us how markets behave at the extreme phase of a bubble – the doubling of prices in months should have served as more of a warning than it did.

There is no such spike evident in gold. The price chart curves gently upward over the past decade with a little bouncing around in the price over 2008. That could be the volatility often associated with a price peaking, or the kind of base-building pattern often seen before a major price advance or spike. Macro-economic conditions are also not that great for gold with the dollar advancing, and deflation and not inflation. If gold can hold its own now – as a safe haven and guarantor against inflation – it should do better when conditions change in its favour. The pumping of huge amounts of money into the global financial system by central banks is the classic formula for inflation, and gold positive. The idea that central banks will be able to successfully manage this rush of liquidity is surely unrealistic. Gold bugs say a golden scenario for the gold price is thus being set up, and further problems in the financial sector and slumping stocks can only increase gold’s appeal.

Indeed, is there any current scenario that looks really bad for gold? Even in an all-out deflationary collapse gold would hold its value better than probably any other asset.

Who’s aram?

Aram Shishmanian Shishmanian has over 30 years’ experience as a management consultant. He joined Accenture (formerly Andersen Consulting) in 1976 and became a partner in 1987.

On retiring in 2003, he was appointed non-executive director at Resolution plc, Victoria plc and several other firms.

Shishmanian has been a trustee of Marie Curie Cancer Care and a member of the International Advisory Board of the Cass Business School and City University.

Aside from being CEO of World Gold Council, he continues as a member of the International Executive of leading global law firm Lovells.

He also holds a BA in Economics with honours and an MBA.

Get precious

Ways to invest in gold and silver: 

- GOLD, the Dubai exchange traded fund

- Gold certificates from Emirates NBD Bank 

- Bars and bullion 

- SLV, the ETF for silver listed in London and other products

- Shares in major gold producers like Newmont or Barrick

- Shares in major silver producers like Pan American Silver and Hecla

- Share in smaller precious metals producers and exploration firms

 

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Mar 21

Nasdaq Dubai will list Dubai Gold Securities under the name of “Dubai Gold” today. Trading will be according to spot gold prices.

According to a note by MAC Capital Advisors, each gold security will represent ownership of a 10th of an ounce of gold. Gold is stored on behalf of investors by HSBC, for a fee of 0.4 per cent per year.

“Initially, a creation basket of 50,000 shares will be issued. DGSLLP, the issuer, retains the ability to issue up to a billion shares according to market demand. The shares are expected to initially trade at a 10th of the spot gold price in increments of $0.10. Liquidity for Dubai Gold is virtually unlimited as it is backed by the London OTC gold market,” the note said.

Ian Munro, Head Research at MAC Capital, said gold prices had rallied strongly during the past two years as the current economic crisis has unfolded, driven by a limited world supply of gold, investor demand for lower risk assets and demand for coins and jewellry. “Dubai Gold offers a number of benefits to investors including Shariah compliant, exposure to the gold price, portfolio diversification and access to a safe haven global asset with no credit risk as the shares are 100 per cent backed with physical gold. Thus, we believe that Dubai Gold makes a sound addition to an investment portfolio,” he added.

According to Shiv Prakash, investment analyst at MAC Capital, gold has given a clear close above the trend line resistance and is nearing to test the previous highs of $1032 formed in March last year, which if breaks can see the resistance levels of $1200 in the medium term.

“As of now, the trend moves in a descending channel formation and is approaching the channel support levels where it becomes good to invest and can expect another rise in the days to come. It also trades above the 50 day simple moving average which is a positive sign,” he said.

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Mar 21

A Shariah-compliant tradeable security backed by gold will be launched in Dubai next week, sources familiar with the plan said yesterday.

Investors have rushed into gold as a haven from the global economic storm and as insurance against potential future inflation.

The price of gold rose above $1,000 an ounce for the first time in almost a year last week.

The Dubai gold security would comply with Islamic investment principles and offer regional investors a way to diversify into gold without actually buying the metal, sources said.

“It’s a tradeable security,” said one source. He and others familiar with the plans declined to give further details ahead of the launch, citing regulatory restrictions.

The head of the World Gold Council (WGC), the chief executive of Nasdaq Dubai and senior officials from the Dubai Multi Commodities Centre (DMCC) would be present at the launch on March 2, the sources said.

The WGC sponsors a number of gold-backed exchange traded funds (ETF) worldwide, accounting for about 85 per cent of the market. ETFs are listed and traded like equities, giving investors exposure to the gold market without taking physical delivery. Sponsors buy the gold and store it. The WGC has long planned the launch of a gold ETF in Dubai, and had hoped to start it before the end of last year. The WGC is a trade group funded by gold mining companies to promote the precious metal.

Dubai has a long-established market for gold bullion and jewellery fuelled by strong demand from the Arab World and India.

Dubai also hosts gold futures trading at the Dubai Gold and Commodities Exchange (DGCX). The state-run DMCC holds a majority stake in the DGCX. State-owned Borse Dubai owns two thirds of Nasdaq Dubai, the smaller of two stock exchanges in the emirate. The Nasdaq OMX Group owns the rest.

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Mar 21

Gold is seen as a safe haven investment, which has sent prices up.

High prices and the global economic downturn have battered Abu Dhabi’s gold market, cutting retail sales by more than 70 per cent on the year in February, according to the chairman of the Gold and Jewellery Group (GJG).

Investors have used gold as a shelter from the impact of the deteriorating economy on other assets, pushing the price up and making jewellery expensive for consumers with shrinking disposable income.

“It is going from bad to worse. It has not picked up,” said GJG Chairman Tushar Patni. “The price is still high. Buyers are staying away and the gloom in the market continues.” Retail sales in Abu Dhabi dropped at least 70 per cent in February, a little more than the 70 per cent fall in January, he said.

Sales will improve if gold prices come down but given the economic climate, it may take several months more, he said. “Even credit is not available easily and that is making things difficult for traders,” Patni said.

Spot gold traded about $1,000 (Dh3,673) an ounce in February for the first time in nearly a year. It has since fallen to just under $940.

Abu Dhabi has 85 gold shops and its own jewellery manufacturers.

 

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Mar 21

News of the UAE Central Bank’s plan to cut interest rates breathed new life into the Dubai Financial Market (DFM) yesterday with the index gaining 17.46 points, or 1.17 per cent, to close the day at 1508.05 on the back of renewed buying interest.

The DFM had been moving in a directionless manner for the past several sessions in the absence of any positive trigger. Yesterday, though, barring the utilities sector, all other indices in the market closed higher.

The banking index gained 6.27 points, insurance was up by 8.13 points, the investment index rose by 20.87 points, real estate by 39.84 points, transportation by 7.29 points, and the telecom index closed higher by 12.94 points.

“In addition to the Central Bank’s plan for rate cuts, overnight gains on Wall Street and the oil price rise have also strengthened market sentiment. These three factors had a positive impact on the DFM because the market was looking for such triggers,” Sanyalaksna Manibhandu, research head, Emaar Saudi Financial Services, told Emirates Business.

Major stocks such as du, Air Arabia, Ajman Bank, Arabtec, Deyaar Development, Dubai Investments, Emaar Properties and NCC closed with more than two per cent gains.

Shiv Prakash, technical analyst at MAC Capital, said: “Ajman Bank advanced to near its resistance areas of Dh1.03 and later met some selling and closed with a net gain of 7.52 per cent at Dh1.00. Du continued its bullish streak and closed higher by 3.50 per cent at Dh2.36.

“The IAIC stock advanced 3.12 per cent to give a bullish close at Dh0.66, which is closer to the important resistance level of Dh0.69. If this is broken it can see the next resistance level of Dh0.75 in the near-term. Emaar was up again and closed higher by 2.02 per cent at Dh2.02.”

The other volume pushers were the DIB and DFM stocks, while the top losers included Ekttitab, Tabreed and GGICO.

Of the 23 stocks traded, 16 closed with gains, while six recorded losses and one remained unchanged.

Mathew Wakeman, Managing Director, cash and equity linked trading, EFG Hermes, said: “Most of Dubai’s large caps managed a two per cent gain today with no real standout in terms of performance.” Air Arabia feels very well supported at these levels and was raised to “buy” from “accumulate” at EFG-Hermes with a 1.53 fair value.

“The potential positive news flow that we may see in the coming weeks regarding the deployment of cash and stimulus looks set to give us a market rally that, in my view, could retest the 1,660 level in the near-term. The market has formed a bottom since last December giving investors confidence to deploy funds at these levels in the belief that the downside is limited. Stability in oil pricess in recent weeks is also helping to reduce the fear in the market,” said Wakeman.

The DFM recorded a total trading value of Dh300.73 million yesterday with 288.94 million shares being traded in 5,235 transactions. The investment horizon of investors certainly looks shorter, but the willingness to buy into ideas is clearly evident, analysts said. After opening flat, the index continued to move higher on sustained buying support at marginal to medium level. In the afternoon it touched the day’s high of 1,517 points and later went down in a restricted range before closing at 1,508.05 points.

“Retail investors and regional funds, who were just waiting for timely triggers to enter the market, have taken advantage of the rate cut news. There was buying interest seen at all the major counters,” said Shiv Prakash.

The plan to reduce interest rates is designed to strengthen the local economy and enable it to weather the impact of the global economic slowdown. The move aims at enhancing liquidity in the market.

Meanwhile in New York, the Dow Jones gained 178.73 points to close at 7,395.70 points yesterday. Wall Street posted its fifth gain in six trading sessions, after a surprise boost from a government report that home construction picked up in February. The news, which was unexpected, injected new vitality into a week-old rally.

“We hope there will be more positive impact on regional markets as the Central Bank’s rate cut plan coupled with the Wall Street rally will boost investor confidence. Despite market uncertainty, local investors have shown resilience to adverse factors. And now they have a reason to rejoice. Regardless of the how much the interest rate will be cut by, the decision itself has infused fresh confidence into the market,” said a regional fund manager.

Drake & Scull still down

Drake & Scull International (DSI) topped the list of volume pushers in yesterday’s trading on the DFM, with the scrip registering Dh57.58m in volume.

However, the DSI stock closed lower for the third consecutive session since its listing, losing 1.49 per cent to close at Dh0.66. “Drake & Scull drifted lower into the close after holding yesterday’s levels for most of the session. It still feels like the stock is being defended at these levels rather than consolidating for a bounce, so we could see further pressure in the near-term,” said Mathew Wakeman, Managing Director, cash and equity linked trading, EFG Hermes.

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Mar 21

The Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange (ADX) responded positively to the Central Bank’s rate cut plan in yesterday’s trading, rallying to close at 2367.91 points, registering a gain of 55.97 points, or 2.42 per cent.

Some of the major stocks that led the rally were Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank, Bank of Sharjah, and the National Bank of Abu Dhabi (NBAD).

“The Central Bank’s plan to cut interest rates boosted the confidence level of investors and as a result of this, banking shares were in the limelight with buying interest seen at almost every counter. I believe most of the bad news for the local markets is over and there would be a gradual recovery in the medium-term,” said Sherif Abdul Khalek, institutional trading manager at Beltone Financial Services.

Mathew Wakeman, Managing Director, cash and equity linked trading, EFG Hermes, said: “There was better than expected housing data from the US, coupled with a strength in tech stocks following increased chip orders. Both of these stoked a fire already burning from last week’s positive bank guidance.”

Yesterday, of the 33 stocks traded on the ADX, 26 advanced and seven declined. Registering a significant rise in trading volume, turnover in the exchange was Dh191 million, against Dh58.89m in the previous session. “A large number of investors put their money in the ADX. Therefore, I foresee the ADX being likely to move higher when compared to the DFM. This is for the medium-term only,” said Sanyalaksna Manibhandu, research head at Emaar Saudi Financial Services.

Wakeman added: “Abu Dhabi saw renewed interest today after a few weeks in the retail wilderness. Banks and real estate had a good bounce on volume – nearly three times the average for the last few weeks. Today was the last day to buy NBAD shares before it goes ex dividend, which has been set at 10 per cent stock and 30 fils cash. Banks reacted positively to comments that liquidity is improving in the system following local and federal government initiatives.”

UNB and Waha witnessed continuous buying and closed higher by 8.33 per cent. Aldar and Sorouh also witnessed buying on lower support levels, registering a gain of 3.24 per cent and 3.32 per cent respectively. Both witnessed good volumes.

“The Abu Dhabi market also took the supports near the 2,275-level on daily charts and registered a good rise to give a bullish close at 2,367.91 up by 2.42 per cent,” said Shiv Prakash, technical analyst at MAC Capital.

Regional markets up

All the major stock exchanges in the GCC and the wider region, except the Bahraini bourse, recorded gains yesterday.

The Saudi Arabian bourse closed higher by 0.83 per cent, Doha by 0.77 per cent, Muscat 0.42 per cent, Kuwait 0.93 per cent, and the Egyptian bourse gained 2.62 per cent yesterday on fresh buying interest over positive global cues.

Considering the present market conditions, Vodafone Qatar’s IPO, which is slated to hit the market on April 12, is likely to be the major mover in the GCC market. The IPO will raise QR3.38 billion (Dh3.4bn) and is the first such offering on the Doha stock market.

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Mar 21

Ron Barnard is throwing in the towel. Like a growing number of the 8.3 million American homeowners who owe more on mortgages than their homes are worth, he is ready to just walk away.

Barnard and others like him are starting to worry market experts and economists, who fret that the growing trend may deal a blow to an economy on its knees while swelling an already ample pool of bad loans.

While others persist in draining savings and running up credit card debt in a last-ditch bid to save their homes, a growing number see no point in making boom-level mortgage payments in a bust market – with no bottom in sight.

“People are hurting,” said Barnard, who includes himself in that group. “They’re scared or they’re angry.”

In California’s Inland Empire east of Los Angeles, where Barnard lives and sells real estate, median home values have plunged more than 40 per cent in the last year as formerly sidelined buyers snapped up foreclosed properties. Those bank-owned homes moved at fire-sale prices that decimated the value of neighbouring homes – many of which are owned by people who have limited “skin in the game” because they put little or no money down at purchase.

Deflating home prices thus threaten to accelerate a negative feedback loop that has sent prices lower, said economist Ed Leamer, Director of the Ucla Anderson Forecast.

“Should the downward spiral in home prices, neighbourhood condition and equity deterioration continue, more and more mainstream borrowers are likely to walk away from their homes,” Credit Suisse said in a December report.

Barnard, who already has stopped making payments on five investment properties purchased in 2005, is on the verge of giving up on his own home that is now worth roughly half its $800,000 purchase price.

Others weigh the predictable and relatively short-term foreclosure-related hit to their credit ratings against the diminishing likelihood of breaking even on their investments or even making monthly payments on such severely “underwater” homes.

Market experts say that, while lenders have the right to sue such borrowers for breach of contract, most will not pursue charges against “indigent” individuals unless they abandon mortgage payments for business interests.

Barnard and some financial planners say that, in certain cases, giving up is the only option.

It can take a year or longer for a bank to seize a home once the owner ceases payments. While a foreclosure hurts credit, owners do not have to make mortgage payments as the process unfolds and can use that saved money to start over.

The prolonged US housing slump prompted President Barack Obama to unveil a $275 billion housing rescue plan that aims to arrest a devastating fall in US home prices and help as many as nine million families stay in their homes, by reducing mortgage payments via refinancing or loan modifications.

As lawmakers battle over legislation to help homeowners, the finance arm of Barnard’s Home Centre Realty is testing a short-pay “refi” programme, or short payoff refinance, which seeks to keep people in their homes by writing down mortgage principal and then refinancing the smaller outstanding debt.

But some cannot afford to wait. Take working mother Jullisa Kalish, 39.

As a realtor in the Phoenix area, she rode high on the property boom. But when the market crumbled over the past three years, she wound up her business, went through a divorce and walked away from her five-bedroom home.

Her home value peaked at $674,000 but was recently revalued at $395,000. Saddled with hundreds of thousands of dollars in negative equity, she found a two-bedroom apartment to rent for herself and her two daughters. “It’s heartbreaking to lose $300,000 worth of equity, over $300,000 of my most valuable asset,” she said. “It will be 10 years before it even gets back to its $600,000 value.”

“It will just take too long to recoup,” she said.

She is not alone. More than half of Nevada’s mortgage holders now owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth. Arizona holds second place with 32 per cent of homeowners have negative equity, and Florida and California follow with 30 per cent each, according to First American CoreLogic, an affiliate of property services firm First American Corp.

The total value of US residential properties fell to $19.1 trillion in December 2008 from $21.5 trillion a year earlier. California’s losses came to more $1.2trn – roughly half the nationwide decline, the firm said.

“I’m able to keep my head just above water right now,” said Russ Sweet, 61, who is now living with his son and renting out his underwater home in Temecula, California, at a loss after an injury ended his career as an electrical lineman in San Diego.

While he fights to stay afloat, Sweet says some of his neighbours in Temecula – a haven for commuters who work in more expensive coastal cities – already have walked away.

In Arizona, Phoenix electrician Alvaro Palacios, 34, called it quits on the dream home he bought at the top of the market in late 2006 for $172,000.

Palacios stopped making payments after he was laid off in December. He took a part-time job as a supermarket delivery driver to make ends meet and has been waiting for his lender, Countrywide, to foreclose. His two-bedroom home with a large yard recently was revalued at $124,000 by the city. Until he hears from the bank, Palacios is staying put.

“It is a difficult decision, but I don’t really see any other alternative,” the father of two said.

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Mar 21

The number of investors in real estate may have dropped due to the drying liquidity but Dubai is still well-placed to continue the real estate momentum, a top official from a state-owned firm said.

In an exclusive interview with Emirates Business, Khalid Harib bin Harib, CEO of Dubai World Central Real Estate, said the liquidity squeeze is also affecting the real estate business here.

“We cannot say we are not affected since we are targeting the international market. Definitely we are affected. The number of investors and the number of developers have become lesser than what we expected,” he said.

“But the good thing is that the local market and the demand from the local market is very strong. That gives the stability in the real estate in Dubai,” he added.

And despite the mundane scenario globally, Harib said Dubai World Central’s (DWC) real estate projects are on track, with some moving ahead of schedule. DWC is a 140-square kilometre development around the soon-to-be world’s largest international airport. When completed, the project will be almost twice the size of Hong Kong Island.

DWC comprises six zones: Al Maktoum International Airport, Dubai Logistics City (DLC), DWC Aviation City, DWC Commercial City, DWC Residential City and DWC Golf City.

Overall cost for DWC infrastructure is estimated to be between $55 billion (Dh201bn) and $60bn. “But we expect to generate three times more than the expected expenses,” Harib said.

He said phase 1 of residential city, DWC’s mid-income housing project, would be handed over to its buyers in the first quarter of 2010 and phase 2 in the first quarter of 2011.

Phases 1 and 2, both sold out, were launched in 2007 and 2008, respectively. Phase 3 slots will be launched in March 2009, while the remaining two phases of this five-phase development plan will be up for sale in 2010 and 2011.

Harib said DWC was able to generate Dh8bn revenue from the sales of the first two phases and is expecting to generate another Dh8bn next year from the sales of phase 3. More than 200 plots valued at Dhsbn were sold out in Phase 1 in February 2007, he said, while another 283 plots valued at Dh6bn were sold out in Phase 2 in March this year.

What is the total value of your projects?

Our expectations depends on how much land we can sell and how much land can we retain to be developed. For example, Residential City is not going be developed totally by DWC. We expect 50 per cent to be introduced to the market and then we will generate funds to develop that other 50 per cent part. As for the Golf City, we will develop it 100 per cent. When it comes to the Commercial City, our strategy will be completely different. It’s a huge city so we will have a strategy, where we will invite master developers locally and internationally to have a joint venture with the DWC to develop the whole Commercial City.

We expect the total expense required to develop the DWC infrastructure is between $55bn and $60bn. But we expect to generate revenue three times more than the expected expenses.

Could you give us a rough idea how much you expect to generate from all these projects?

We expect Dh35bn to be generated from the Residential City; Dh150bn from the Commercial City; and Dh85bn from the Golf City. So far, we have already generated Dh3bn last year and Dh6bn this year. For now we have nothing for sale. In March, we will introduce phase 3 of the Residential City and we expect a revenue of Dh8bn from there. We will introduce phase 1 of the
Golf City and launch the Commercial City in May 2009.

Is securing water and electricity an issue for you?

We have no problem in these things as we consider our project as a government project. We believe the local department will consider our project with first priority. We have already secured water and electricity and based on these, we build our promises on when to deliver the units to the end-user. This issue might be applicable for the private sector but when it comes to Dubai World Central we have already secured these things.

So is DWC a government entity?

Yes, we are. It is 100 per cent government owned but we are 100 per cent independent in the project management and financing.

Are you affected by the drying liquidity in the region?

We cannot say no since we are targeting the international market. Definitely, we are affected. The number of investors and developers have become fewer than what we expected. But the good thing is that the local market is very strong. And the demand is very high from the local market.

How much drop of investors appetite have you seen?

The majority of investors in phase 1 and 2 are local investors. We didn’t see any recession in the number of local investors but we are targeting the international market for phase 3. And here, they are a bit hesitant because of the financial crisis taking place all around the world.

How are you convincing them to continue investing despite these turbulent times?

The most important is the stability and government support. That encourages developers to come over and invest in the real estate market in Dubai.

Any plans to go public?

It depends on our chairman’s decision but it’s not expected soon. We are almost three years old and are just establishing and I think we are not mature enough to convert into public shareholding firm. We are not ready yet. We will first try to practice our experience in the market. We still do not have the experience to compete with other master developers. When we feel we are qualified enough to compete and export our services, that’s the time we can consider converting the company into a public share.

What is the current set up of the company and are there any restructuring in the pipeline?

Dubai World Central is considered the holding entity and we are establishing a number of companies and subsidiaries. We have the facility management, which is to be converted as an LLC company; an IT department which is also going to be converted as a global technology LLC company. Early next year, we expect to announce the real estate company brand name with different subsidiaries. Now we are working as a department but we are in a stage of being converted into a private company.

From where do you get your capital?

We are getting it from the real estate. The government provides us with the land and we get the benefit of selling the land and getting the funds to develop the project.

Is getting money difficult at the moment?

Frankly we have no problem. We have enough land that we can just introduce into the market any time we wish. Based on our requirement on the fund, we introduce real estate to the local market.

Can we presume that your projects are less expensive considering the land is directly provided by the government?

No. The value of the land depends on where the project is to be developed. We are developing the infrastructure, which is part of the soon-to-be biggest airport in the world. Besides that, we are going to have the largest exhibition centre, the aviation city, which is the biggest private jet terminal, and the best golf course in Dubai. These add value to the land itself. Yes, we are government but the value of the land is very high compared to others.

Would you be launching low-cost housing, too?

We have already launched that part. We have taken into consideration the white collar, the blue collar and mid-income classes. It is under construction now. The first part developed in DWC is the low-cost housing. The part that we are going to develop will be completed in mid-2010, while the part to be developed by other developers will be ready in the first quarter of 2010.

People living there will have all the facilities in terms of community centres, schools, hospitals and other services, which is quite difficult to find in any other projects. We are building cities. We are not building just buildings.

Don’t you think Dubai is building so many cities within a city?

We are trying to convert Dubai as a country and not just as a city. In fact, with large projects taken in Dubai, it has become a country and not just a city.

Are you also building labour camps?

Yes, we have two zones – one is in the residential city and the other in the logistics city and they can accommodate 90,000 staff. They are under construction, and in the first quarter of 2010 people can move in.

Wouldn’t it be better if the government provides labour camps?

That is the intention of the government. They have some dedicated land and it will be developed to accommodate the huge number of labourers within Dubai and to ease the pressure especially in Sharjah and Ajman as well.

PROFILE: Khalid Harib bin Harib, CEO, Dubai World Central Real Estate

Bin Harib took charge as Dubai World Central’s CEO of Real Estate in December 2005, six months before the DWC brand was launched globally. With more than 21 years of experience in the aviation industry in senior executive positions at Emirates and Etihad Airways, he took on Dubai Government’s challenge to create a unique realty offering of an airport city centred around the world’s largest airport.

Harib’s experience, through his employment with the UAE’s two largest airlines and his own real estate and property business, ensured the success of the region’s biggest aviation and logistics project. Putting together an experienced team of Emiratis and expatriates and a novel system of providing regional and international investors with a long-term investment, Harib initiated a series of events that thrust the project into the global limelight.

As the Gulf and ME Manager of Emirates airlines between 1986-1992, the Compliance Director of Dubai’s Economic Development Department between 1992-1997 and Head of Ground Operation and Cabin Crew, Etihad Airways in 2005, Harib built up a reputation as an expert in customer relations management, general management, strategic business development, property and real estate management, team building, leadership and maximising profits.

He remains the chairman of the Harib Bin Harib Group, established in 1989.

Harib is a UAE citizen, with a BA from Emirates University and is a qualified business administration and media degree holder and a fellow of Iata Diploma Training.

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Mar 21

In April 2008, few would have envied Nasser Bin Hassan Al Shaikh’s appointment as Chairman of Deyaar Development.

After the then CEO Zack Shahin’s resignation amid corruption allegations, Al Shaikh was left with the task of finding a successor to reaffirm investor confidence.

Markus Giebel would be that man.

In the UAE for four years prior to Al Shaikh’s search, Giebel had already made his millions. As Vice-President of Fortune 500 company Corning, Giebel milked the telecom boom in the US with fibre optic solutions.

By the time he sold his stake in 2005 and hit Dubai’s shores, he had amassed 25 patents – he now has close to 40 – for his designs and had raised a fortune.

“We enjoyed a 50 per cent market share in the US,” he told Emirates Business.

“We made more money than we ever knew what to do with. We got very rich, very quickly. Then the bubble burst, we lost 30 per cent of our customers, and crawled back to a steady six per cent growth. That bores me, so I left,” said the 41-year-old German.

“In an upswing, where everything is hot, you can reinvent the market which is very rewarding and exciting. When you go downwards it is also very rewarding, because you have to work hard to sustain and minimise the fall. What is not rewarding is if it goes sideways – if you have five to seven per cent growth rate, that is the most boring time.”

It is precisely this straight talking that defines his leadership. He minces no words. His confidence erases arrogance. He wears his wealth subtly. If his words hid some truths, you’d never know. He keeps them simple, leaving no room for doubt.

Tracing his journey to Dubai, Giebel said: “I came to Dubai to visit a few friends and we ended up launching an investment bank called Vedera Capital, and that was the beautiful days of Dubai. It was just one way – up. It was beautiful.”

A qualified mechanical engineer who went on to an MBA, Giebel admitted his foray into real estate surprised him too.

“I’ve founded many companies, but I would never have imagined leading a real estate company,” he said. “This is why you should never plan ahead. Let things just happen, that is the beauty of life.”

Giebel treats the business of real estate is the same way as if he were selling Pepsi or cars: “Any product is the same. The product is not very important unless it’s a niche product like computer chips.

“For most products, if you’re a good leader and a good strategist, it doesn’t matter what you have. You rely on your people and set the stage and direction. It doesn’t matter what the product is,” he said.

As he shifts into his CEO role, his passion for leadership becomes increasingly evident. He thrives on it.

“Yes, I enjoy the leadership,” he said, with an amusingly boyish smile. “It’s most important in these bad times to offer leadership, not only to your people but also the market. The people working with me are the key to my leadership. You can have the best strategy, outlook and budget, but if you don’t have the people to translate it, there is no point.”

Giebel’s strategy and experience have given Deyaar a unique advantage.

At a time when developers are scrambling for survival solutions, Deyaar unfolded its strategy this week to general applause. Transparent, direct and effective, the $1 billion (Dh3.67bn) plan to ease the burden on its commitments and 7,000 customers was, if anything, a Giebel trademark.

“Our competitive advantage is that we have seen downturns before and can therefore manage them better. If you have a good strategy, and one you believe in, there’s no reason not to communicate it. In a time of crisis, you should communicate more than you ever were before,” he said. Deyaar has had no layoffs to date, and intends to enter the international market next year.

On Dubai and the global crisis, Giebel said: “Dubai is pretty well-positioned. I believe in it and that is why I’m here. We had many, many years of the most outstanding growth anyone has ever seen in the world. Somebody has done something very right here. What has happened here in Dubai is stunning, it’s beautiful. Now nothing grows for ever, that we all know. So we just have to adjust again.

“We believe 2009 is the year of the downturn, and nothing significant will happen, 2010 is the year of the bottom and the end of 2010 and early 2011 you’ll see economies start to move again. This crisis developed over years, so you can’t solve it in six months. That’s just impossible.” Giebel suspects Dubai will continue to generate positive challenges for the foreseeable future.

“I’m going to have a long stay here, because I don’t see the boring problem of five or seven per cent growth ever coming here. It will always offer exciting swings.”

A remarkable career has, however, failed to draw complete praise from his mother. “I’m not married and have no kids and my mom is not very happy about that,” he said.

“It depends on how satisfied you are with your own life. There comes a time when these things change, for me it will come just a little bit later because I do intend on settling down.

“I won’t plan it, because if you try to plan it you make mistakes.”

For the moment, he’s content taking two-year-old Denmark, his Labrador, on Hummer trips to the desert. Denmark? “When I got him, I had a good friend of mine Dennis who said we’ll take care of the dog together since I don’t have much time.

“Dennis and Markus shortened to Denmark for the dog. The problem is that Dennis is nowhere to be found, and now I take care of the dog whose name is Denmark.”

Bio

Prior to his appointment at Deyaar, Giebel served as Chief Executive Officer of Dubai-based Vedera Capital where he was responsible for managing multiple real estate projects worth several billion dollars, both in the region and worldwide. He also founded Marasi, a Shariah-compliant real estate fund, in addition to leading several merger and acquisitions and private placement transactions for the firm.

Giebel previously served as the Vice-President for Europe and the Middle East at Corning, a Fortune 500 company.

Through his career, Giebel has collected several awards and distinctions, including the Business Award from the German Ministry of Economic Affairs.

Today, he holds close to 40 patents, an MBA from Switzerland Business School and a Master’s degree in Mechanical Engineering from University of Munich in Germany. One of his inventions, Optifit, a fibre optic node assembly, continues to enjoy a 50 per cent market share.

Lifestyle CV

Hobbies

“I love snowboarding and wind surfing. One week a year I go helicopter skiing in Canada, which is something nobody can take away from me. I also enjoy volleyball, and swim 15 minutes every morning.”

Cars

“For business meetings, I drive a regular BMW 7 series. Once in a while I take my Ferrari out. And if the weather is great, I take my Bentley convertible for a spin.”

Personal investments

“I have invested my wealth in real estate, life insurance and alternative investments in the UAE and abroad.”

Weakness

“I have many weaknesses which I don’t think I should mention. But my biggest weakness is I’m not good at languages. It’s very hard for me to learn new languages. I speak English and German, and studied Latin for eight years. But please don’t ask me to speak in Latin.”

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Mar 21

The retail sector needs to brace itself for tougher times, a veteran has said. Jean Pierre Nammour, Managing Director of Al Nahda Real Estate, the owners of Sahara Centre in Sharjah, said the retail market has already seen a noticeable drop in sales and will face more downward pressure in the coming months. “Starting last September, we had Ramadan, Eid Al Adha, national holidays, Christmas, New Year and the Dubai Shopping Festival. Now from March to June there is nothing,” he told Emirates Business. Despite this somewhat gloomy outlook, Nammour is positive that Sharjah’s largest mall will record an eight per cent growth on revenue and a 48 per cent jump on its net operating income this year. To achieve this, the mall is raising its fees by about 25 per cent and reducing its own expenditures.

How has Sahara Centre been faring since its inception? Can you also brief us about your year-on-year revenues as well as your payback period?

Sahara Centre opened in 2002, so that makes us seven-year-old. I have been here since the inception. When I came here the entire areas was all sand and there was only one building across the mall. This is my baby. The initial project costs was roughly Dh400 million. The payback period is 14 years and we are on target. We will get back all the money we invested by 2016. Last year was a record year. Our operating revenue rose by 18 per cent from $73m (Dh267.9m) in 2007 to $86m in 2008 and our net operating income went up by eight per cent from $23m to $25m in the same period.

What could be the scenario this year?

We are still expecting a growth of eight per cent in our operating revenue this year and we also expect our net operating income to reach Dh40m, a 48 per cent increase from last year. The high percentage increase in projected net income for 2009 is due to a combination of large projected increases in revenues and reduction in expenditures.

Where do you get your income?

Al Nahda Real Estate – a joint venture between Bukhatir Investments and Ghobash Investments – is the holding company that owns Sahara Centre and the land around it. We have no income other than from the mall. We are expanding the eastern retail side, which will make the mall 200 metres longer. Completion is scheduled in September 2010. We are 85 per cent pre-let for the expansion.

Do you expect some of the bookings to be cancelled due to the economic slowdown?

These 85 per cent have signed and paid deposits of 10 per cent. We have been very careful in the selection process. The tenants that we have let are all successful brands. None of them have so far called us to reconsider.

Considering that real estate prices have begun to fall, how would you be able to increase your revenues?

We are increasing our rates. The increase depends on the size of the shop and it depends on the tenant. We can only charge a minimum increase for 50,000 square foot to 100,000 sqft shops. On the other hand, we’ll be charging smaller shops nothing less than a 25 per cent increase in their rents. That’s where we’ll get the eight per cent growth in revenue.

Have you already the raised the fees? And did you hear any complains from the tenants for this increasing at a time when the market – as some analysts put it – is “correcting”?

We had several tenants whose contracts were renewed in the past three months and we have implemented the increase in those cases. Of course, they complained but at the end of the day they paid. The problem is that everybody is jumping on the slowdown bandwagon right now. A number of my friends in the retail and construction business are playing that game, too. For tenants who are come to me and said banks are not lending and they don’t have money, I say: ‘I’m sorry; pay up or leave’.

Isn’t that harsh?

When we were opening this mall and there were two other malls coming up at the same time, potential tenants would come to me, ask for rental quotations and then go around to the other two malls and present them with my quotations to get a better deal there. That was harsh on their part at that time. The world has turned full circle. One day you are up there and one day you are down, and that is the situation right now. So far no one has left.

Retail is one of the most affected sectors in the credit crisis. What are the silver linings?

There are always opportunities. For example, we have no more space to rent and we still have a very long waiting list. The crisis is an opportunity whereby if one tenant has to shut down, that translates into a space becoming available for another brand at a higher rent than the one who left was paying. Sahara Centre has also been only slightly affected because we are a solid middle-class product. We don’t have really high-end branded luxury items. That is not the profile of our shoppers.

How do you see the retail market in the next 12 months?

Right now, across the retail market there has been a noticeable drop in sales – whether it’s Sahara Centre or any other mall or shop. We’ve got tougher times coming. Retailers have suffered in the last couple of months but they will suffer more. Starting last September we had Ramadan, Eid Al Adha, national holidays, Christmas, New Year and the Dubai Shopping Festival. Now from March to June there is nothing. So March to June will be the toughest months.

PROFILE: Jean Pierre Nammour Managing Director, Al Nahda Real Estate

A Lebanese-American Jean Pierre Nammour started work in Saudi Arabia with Arabian Business Services, a subsidiary of Lloyds and Scottish Bank.

Before joining the construction and shopping mall management industry, he helped set up Parmobel in the Jebel Ali Free Zone, a joint venture between the Chalhoub Group and L’Oréal Paris, as finance administrator.

Nammour was born and did his schooling in Lebanon.

Later, he moved to the United States, where he completed both his Bachelor’s degree and his MBA.

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